Investments and the “credit crunch”
Monday, July 21st, 2008A strange subject for a blog about organic farming and growing, surely? Well actually it’s really very relevant.
Today I was washing some honey jars in the kitchen, ready for re-filling, and had Radio 4 on. The next programme was announced as being “about commodity trading.” Oh no, dull as dishwater I thought (excuse the pun). But my ears pricked up as I heard the presenter being Alvin Hall - someone I’ve always admired for putting financial issues in to very plain English.
“Commodity” is not a term I like applied to food, but in the language of investors that is what food is - a commodity that is as every bit as important as oil and metals. What is interesting is the perception of food in the commodity traders’ eyes. Perhaps it’s not the central importance to life that we recognise - health, landscape, rural society, wildlife, etc; but what is being clearly recognised, is that food is no longer a cheap “commodity” in plentiful supply.
One American commentator, Jim Rogers, goes on to say “when this bull market comes to an end you’re going to see farmers on the front cover of Fortune magazine…just like now you see the 29-year old’s from Wall St…it’s soon going to be the 29-year old cotton farmers…they’re going to have the great fortunes.”
So, if global investment bankers think farmers are going to “have the great fortunes” soon, those claims would surely not be said without a good deal of thought and reasoning based on market intelligence and consumer buying trends?
If this is true then it’s good news, but it does mean that people will have to be prepared to pay a fair price for food, which means a higher proportion of their income (as people used to). This will mean quite a major shift in priorities for most people…so can the investors see something that we in the organic movement can’t?
Anyway, if you’re interested you can listen again to the programme here until July 28th.